Friday 27 November 2015

Rivers Rerun: Can Wike 'Win' Again?

By Oby Ndukwe

Going by the October 24, 2015 judgment of the Rivers State Election Petition Tribunal led by Justice Mohammed Ambrosa where the April 11 Governorship election which brought Chief Nyesom Wike to power was annulled and a fresh election ordered within 90 days, it is obvious that Wike who was the candidate of the PDP and presently occupying the seat of Power as governor of Rivers State, is faced with the stark reality that he may not succeed to upturn the verdict through the Appeal Court and the Supreme Court.

Though he has, through his lawyers filed an appeal of about 26 grounds challenging the decision of the Tribunal which altered his usual overbearing mien, Wike has since began to restructure his campaign team in a bid to win the election, this time, convincingly.

The initial refusal to constitute a full fledged State Executive Council has been reversed with the recent submission of more names to the State Assembly for screening of Commissioners. Prior to this, the Local Government Councils which for two months had no Caretaker Councils to control the allocations accrued and also pay Council workers suddenly had his core supporters who were earlier pencilled down to contest election as substantive Chairmen, appointed as Caretaker Chairmen.

They are to take charge of the grassroots in their various areas since rerun is imminent. Special Advisers have also been appointed under duress.

In spite of all these strategies being put in place by the Obio/Akpor strongman, there are several areas where his political prowess will be tested.

Going by the allegations of enjoying the Federal might through the meddlesomeness of the former First Lady, Patience Jonathan, can Wike exhibit such power again in view of the fact that his party is no longer the power at the center?

The overbearing attitude of the Rivers politician during the scandalous era of CP Matthew Mbu and CP Bature who were used to cage members of the then opposition APC has suddenly been diminished as the Nigerian Police Force is no longer in the pockets of the political class to a large extent.

Though he no longer has access to funds accrued to the Federal Ministry of Education where he held sway, he still enjoys the double edged magnanimity of some commercial banks who have lent him over N40billion Naira within a period of seven months in office, as well as other revenues from federal allocation and IGR.

His financial war chest is huge but is it likely that the new INEC will fall to the temptation of receiving any such gifts as was the case during the last election? The Security Agencies are usually loyal to the party at the centre even where they pretend to be neutral, and so is the electoral body, INEC.

No doubt, he still enjoys the support of some ex-militant leaders who are now part of his government, both in the Executive and Legislature. But how many of these transformed militants will sacrifice their new status to aid the snatching of ballot boxes and result sheets, the shooting and killing of political opponents and more, for the sake of one man who has been stripped of all extra power from the top?

The glaring truth is that Wike remains a toothless bulldog, in spite of the factors that seem to favour him. His only power to win a free and fair election lies in the strength of the electorates. Are Rivers people willing to vote him as the substantive Governor, given a second chance? Several issues will be considered beyond party affiliation.

Since the inception of his government, have the people fared better? The constant sack of Rivers people from work without any cogent reasons will definitely be a factor that will work against him.

Relations of the sacked lecturers and Timariv workers as well as the sacked RSSDA staff and it's beneficiaries, few weeks to a rerun election will definitely not vote for him. Within the PDP, only those who are members of his GDI may be eager to vote for him again.

His appointments are nothing more of the recycling of old politicians and those who are known to belong to GDI. The Local Government workers who are being owed their two to three months salaries, while huge donations are made to footballers will definitely not queue behind him.

Most of those who expected that the contracts for the filling of potholes and the construction of gutters would be awarded to them, rather than use surrogate contracting firms may opt to vote for his opponent or better still, sit back at home.

The slogan of, "if they attack you, you attack them back, don't come here to cry to me, if they arrest you, we use federal might to release you", has been erased. His supporters know that there is a change of power in Aso Rock, and their master no longer calls the shots for the security agencies. He has urged the Police in the state not to release anyone arrested for armed robbery, kidnapping and killing, without proper investigation.


As it is usually said, "All vehicles are parked at Owner's risk". Who wants to rot behind bars? With the odds against him, can Nyesom Wike 'win' again?"

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